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Entering the planet's most popular museum in broad daylight, grabbing eight pieces of priceless Napoleonic jewellery and vanishing into the city traffic on simple scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, carried out for international notoriety and ensuing Hollywood film treatments.

Experts who study patterns in international art crime, however, see Sunday morning’s heist at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the most recent in a series of smash-and-grab thefts focused more on the monetary worth of precious stones or metals than the historical importance, continuing a trend that has emerged over the last ten years in Germany, the UK and the US. The venue, they suggest, would have been of secondary concern to the thieves.

“You may ask why criminals who want to steal valuable jewellery are breaking into a globally renowned museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” stated an expert in art recovery. “It's straightforward: it’s because these days a high-end boutique is more secure.”

A series of aggressive jewellery shop thefts mean that many stores have beefed up their protection in recent years, with armed guards on their premises and wares no longer kept on display overnight. Cultural institutions, on the other hand, look vulnerable, partly because of the in-built factor of being accessible institutions in older structures, and partly the financial situation in many developed nations.

“Since Covid, governments across the globe have cut back on police and the arts funding,” noted Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it demonstrates how vulnerable our institutions have become. This is a horrible time to be a museum.”

The theft of the items – featuring jewelry pieces made up of precious stones and hundreds of gems, the crown of Empress Eugénie containing thousands of diamonds and a extremely expensive crown once possessed by Napoleon III’s wife that the thieves left by the roadside on their way out – has naturally drawn comparisons with the historical theft of the famous painting from the same museum, carried out by the Italian handyman the thief.

Better points of reference may be the 2019 theft of jewellery from a German institution worth over millions, the taking of a £4.75m gold toilet from a UK landmark the same year, the recent robbery of a large gold coin from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a series of thefts of sports memorabilia from American institutions.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as rapidly as possible.”

If the items were to remain intact, specialists say, the criminals would find it hard to sell them. “There’s no way to trade something as immediately identifiable as the Louvre’s jewels on the legal marketplace”, commented Lynda Albertson of the Association for Research into Crimes against Art.

“They are too well-known, particularly given the Ministry of Culture has released images of the pieces. Even a private collector or an sales venue would want to see documentation establishing proper ownership before handling such remarkable pieces.”

In the past, institutions were often hesitant to go public about the disappearance of famous works of art and would remain quiet out of shame. These days, as cultural robberies are more reported on, the keeping and sale of stolen art is dangerous for any lawbreaker.

“If you steal a famous painting, it has to stay complete or it becomes worthless, and you have to conceive of a plan to keep it in hiding, maybe by moving it among dangerous individuals,” said Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the risk of an accomplice telling the police to cash in a ransom.”

For similar reasons, an art detective said it was vanishingly unlikely that the robbery had been ordered. “Stolen to order is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “Nobody would touch this. It's global news and in all the media. If you acquire these, if you get caught, you go to jail. You cannot show it to your friends, you cannot leave it to your children.”

Altering stolen works by dismantling or re-cutting does reduce the value. When it comes to gems, it also comes with considerable risk because modern cutting techniques give stones a bigger and brighter appearance, and older-style stones would either attract notice or barter the price down for a concealment.

Importantly, however, dismantling or re-cutting removes the proof of the theft. “I suspect that the robbers will try to bring the items to locations with gem knowledge like Israel, India or even as close as Antwerp, and find someone to remove the stones,” suggested Marinello.

The robbery at the Louvre has already raised questions about security measures at the museum, with a leaked state auditor report expected to be released soon pointing out “significant” and “ongoing” slow progress in updating systems and noting that security cameras were missing in multiple areas. But specialists say displaying precious items in historic buildings with a constant flow of visitors comes with risks that are not possible to eliminate completely.

“Historic buildings are much harder to protect,” explained Erin Thompson. “They often have large accessible windows that allows for criminals to escape, and there may be building protection statutes in place that mean you are unable to install them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The best security systems for buildings should be conceptualised “as a stronghold”, said a security advisor. “There should be multiple levels to deter intruders.”

Modern buildings are equipped with advanced surveillance systems or in-built seismic detectors that raise alarm about a broken glass in immediately, but old museums may be reluctant to uglify their exteriors. Detection devices can be difficult to fit to decorated surfaces. Sensors may also have to be disabled during the day as crowds stomp through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which occurred between morning hours in Paris, was typical of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “It's logical why thefts tend to happen at either opening or closing times. It’s often when security rotate and prior to the museum is crowded who effectively act as additional security staff.”

Technological progress may have thrown up new devices that can raise the alarm more rapidly and effectively, but it has also given robbers new methods with which to bypass protections. In Paris, the robbers reached the museum’s upper level with a vehicle-mounted ladder and breached a window with a battery-powered disc cutter.

An author said the conversation in France about the historic building had mostly focused on visitor management in recent years, and less on protection.

The institution has an in-house brigade of about 50 permanent firefighters, but their purpose is mostly to safeguard the collection from blazes and water damage. “There is no quick reaction team,” Sciolino said. “In the end, the security of the Louvre all depends on government support and money, and at present the nation lacks sufficient money.”